← Wallets
+$11.8kNo · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $31.8k+$450No · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $27.4k+$365No · avg 90.2¢ → 93.7¢ · $9,929−$11.8kYes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $8,220+$433No · avg 60¢ → 64¢ · $7,112+$252No · avg 70¢ → 74¢ · $6,179 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$625No · avg 88¢ → 98.2¢ · $6,110+$1,400Yes · avg 49¢ → 66¢ · $5,320 · 2 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -22.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-22.8 pts
Called / graded
0/6
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$181.1k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$90k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? at 6¢) and the edge is -26.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 6% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 31% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$129.5k
Last 30 days +$8,519 · $6.47M volume · 13,046 trades · since Apr 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$268.8k
Open P&L · 22 positions
+$633
Closed-position win rate
74%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
543d
551 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | -32.3 pts |
| Other | 3 | 0 | 0.4 | -13.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 77¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢ | $12.0k | missed |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 63¢ | $10.7k | missed |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 72¢ | $20.9k | missed |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $13.2k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $13.2k | missed |
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