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lava-lava

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -35.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
-35.0 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$306.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.01M
Last 30 days −$5,197 · $42.08M volume · 59,036 trades · since Apr 19, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.55M
Open P&L · 171 positions
+$11.5k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1284d
1553 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Politics100.6-62.0 pts
Other100.1-8.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?LOW SELL Yes @ 70¢ $11.0k30% 1d agopending
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ $11.3k69% 1d agopending
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢ $15.3k96% 135d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ $56.0k
3.9× usual
95% 135d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ $14.5k93% 136d agoexcluded
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 92.7¢ $12.0k93% 136d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 33¢ $14.0k33% 137d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 92¢ $10.0k8% 179d agomissed
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 31¢ $11.8k31% 181d agomissed
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED BUY No @ 76¢ $36.1k
2.5× usual
76% 185d agocalled
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 79¢ $13.1k79% 191d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ $19.4k70% 197d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY No @ 70¢ $28.8k
2.0× usual
70% 197d agocalled
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?MED BUY No @ 30¢ $25.3k30% 198d agomissed
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ $15.0k33% 198d agomissed
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ $12.9k62% 388d agomissed

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