cookiejar

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?+$438Yes · avg 24¢ → 29¢ · $2,394 Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?+$198No · avg 23¢ → 30¢ · $899 Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?+$82Yes · avg 23¢ → 26¢ · $633 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?−$595Yes · avg 40¢ → 20¢ · $626 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?−$210Yes · avg 29¢ → 18¢ · $370 Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 15%-18%?+$70Yes · avg 9.6¢ → 14¢ · $229 Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?+$57No · avg 56¢ → 76¢ · $214 Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?+$9Yes · avg 56¢ → 62¢ · $94

Price-adjusted edge

+4.2 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$220.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$189

Last 30 days +$16.7k · $16.67M volume · 3,092 trades · since Jul 01, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$31.8k

Open P&L · 37 positions

−$55.4k

Closed-position win rate

79%

296 closed

Wallet age · markets

480d

303 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	1.0	+4.2 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢	$11.6k	96%	121d ago	called
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$69.9k 3.0× usual	100%	183d ago	excluded
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$29.6k	88%	194d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$11.6k	97%	264d ago	excluded
Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$80.4k 3.5× usual	100%	410d ago	excluded
Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$16.9k	100%	411d ago	excluded

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called

BUY No @ 95.8¢$11.6k

LOW cookiejar · 121d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$69.9k

LOW cookiejar · 183d ago

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 88¢$29.6k

LOW cookiejar · 194d ago

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?excluded

BUY No @ 96.9¢$11.6k

LOW cookiejar · 264d ago

Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$80.4k

LOW cookiejar · 410d ago

Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$16.9k

LOW cookiejar · 411d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x614ef98a8be021de3a974942b2fb98794ff34f1b"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x614ef98a8be021de3a974942b2fb98794ff34f1b.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x614ef9…