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+$646Yes · avg 66¢ → 68¢ · $23.2k · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -70.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-70.3 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$492.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$111.3k
Last 30 days +$315 · $1.63M volume · 90 trades · since May 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$18.9k
Open P&L · 11 positions
−$67.4k
Closed-position win rate
33%
24 closed
Wallet age · markets
885d
34 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -70.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92.5¢ | $60.7k | missed |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $60.7k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 69¢ | $42.2k | called |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | MED SELL No @ 81¢ | $37.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $54.4k | missed |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | MED SELL No @ 91¢ | $54.4k | called |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 93.3¢ | $55.8k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 62¢ | $23.2k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 67¢ | $24.0k | called |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 70¢ | $14.6k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 80¢ | $16.8k | called |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 78¢ | $16.8k | missed |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $16.5k | called |
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