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+$10.1kAshlyn Krueger · avg 50¢ → 82¢ · $25.8k−$127Seahawks · avg 68¢ → 68¢ · $17.2k+$347Tennessee · avg 46¢ → 48¢ · $14.4k−$623Over · avg 48¢ → 46¢ · $12.4k+$269Auburn · avg 43¢ → 44¢ · $11.0k+$98Tennessee · avg 49¢ → 50¢ · $10.1k−$9Auburn · avg 52¢ → 52¢ · $9,429+$561Ole Miss · avg 42¢ → 46¢ · $8,518
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did +15.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +15.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+15.0 pts
Called / graded
5/5
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$110.6k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$11k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Chiefs vs. Dolphins at 85¢) and the edge is +15.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 85% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.90M
Last 30 days +$1.57M · $452.19M volume · 762,738 trades · since Apr 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$19.24M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$2.63M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
183d
46158 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 5 | 4.2 | +15.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Chiefs vs. Dolphins | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 85¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 85¢ | $11.0k | called |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 85¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 85¢ | $22.2k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Chiefs vs. Dolphins | LOW BUY Chiefs @ 85¢ | $10.5k | called |
 Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 80¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton | LOW BUY Ben Shelton @ 93¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo | LOW BUY Andrey Rublev @ 90¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert | LOW BUY Zizou Bergs @ 90¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
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