budu100

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +9.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?+$1,636No · avg 92.8¢ → 97.5¢ · $34.2k China x Philippines military clash before 2027?+$2,081No · avg 69¢ → 78¢ · $19.0k Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$1,400No · avg 89¢ → 97.7¢ · $15.8k China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?+$385No · avg 93.7¢ → 96.5¢ · $13.3k Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?+$200No · avg 92.3¢ → 95¢ · $6,863 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+$42No · avg 96.9¢ → 97.8¢ · $4,888 Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?+$102No · avg 92.5¢ → 94.7¢ · $4,478 Trump out as President before 2027?+$173No · avg 91.9¢ → 95.7¢ · $4,400

Price-adjusted edge

+9.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$76.1k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$13.6k

Last 30 days +$2,453 · $2.67M volume · 4,187 trades · since Jun 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$9,933

Open P&L · 23 positions

+$3,800

Closed-position win rate

66%

141 closed

Wallet age · markets

486d

160 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+9.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$35.6k 2.5× usual	0%	117d ago	excluded
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99¢	$16.4k	1%	228d ago	excluded
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$12.5k	99%	229d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$11.5k	91%	465d ago	called

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$35.6k

LOW budu100 · 117d ago

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99¢$16.4k

LOW budu100 · 228d ago

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.1¢$12.5k

LOW budu100 · 229d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 91¢$11.5k

LOW budu100 · 465d ago

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