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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did +54.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+54.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$9.24M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3.62M
Last 30 days −$163.4k · $86.85M volume · 21,492 trades · since May 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$102.1k
Open P&L · 30 positions
−$3.87M
Closed-position win rate
43%
189 closed
Wallet age · markets
163d
209 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +54.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Egypt @ 37¢ | $288.4k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH SELL No @ 25¢ | $343.5k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH BUY No @ 62¢ | $795.7k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED SELL Yes @ 43¢ | $137.6k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $1.32M 8.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 83¢ | $196.5k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $1.17M 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED SELL No @ 87¢ | $45.0k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | HIGH BUY No @ 53¢ | $795.5k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED SELL Yes @ 46¢ | $171.1k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $1.07M 7.2× usual |
called |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | MED SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $120.4k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY No @ 18¢ | $75.3k | excluded |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 52¢ | $57.6k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | HIGH BUY No @ 46¢ | $680.1k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | MED BUY No @ 43¢ | $161.1k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | HIGH BUY No @ 32¢ | $128.0k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $177.0k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $165.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $762.7k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY No @ 15¢ | $46.6k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL No @ 20¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW SELL No @ 57¢ | $57.0k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 55¢ | $63.5k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | HIGH BUY Spurs @ 46¢ | $260.1k | called |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ | $35.0k | called |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 41¢ | $40.9k | excluded |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ | $16.4k | missed |
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