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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -56.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-56.4 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$404.7k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$956.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $33.50M volume · 33,097 trades · since May 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4.66M
Open P&L · 90 positions
−$5.62M
Closed-position win rate
74%
144 closed
Wallet age · markets
164d
220 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 0 | 1.7 | -56.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 48¢ | $19.6k | missed |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL No @ 36¢ | $44.9k | missed |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $31.2k | excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 40¢ | $102.7k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY No @ 53¢ | $70.6k | missed |
 Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? | LOW BUY No @ 36¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 Cavaliers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 37¢ | $125.3k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2d7be5…