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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -15.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-15.9 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$158.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$249.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.67M volume · 45 trades · since Feb 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$28.3k
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$273.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
1 closed
Wallet age · markets
256d
9 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | -15.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 4¢ | $32.2k | missed |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 3.8¢ | $26.3k | missed |
 Will France win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY No @ 40¢ | $100.0k 3.1× usual |
missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1aeb41…