← Wallets
−$330Yes · avg 91.5¢ → 91.5¢ · $735.4k+$546No · avg 92¢ → 92.5¢ · $101.0k+$125Yes · avg 91¢ → 91.5¢ · $22.9k−$51Yes · avg 89¢ → 87¢ · $2,610+$80Yes · avg 91.4¢ → 95¢ · $2,084−$146Yes · avg 3.5¢ → 2.5¢ · $341
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +5.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.7 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$356.2k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$175.2k
Last 30 days −$1,351 · $5.58M volume · 1,135 trades · since Oct 27, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$176.6k
Open P&L · 6 positions
+$224
Closed-position win rate
92%
104 closed
Wallet age · markets
727d
110 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +6.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $101.2k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
 Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ | $24.2k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $40.3k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $65.0k 2.8× usual |
called |
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $46.6k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.6¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.9¢ | $10.3k | called |
 Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $15.3k | called |
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