Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$131
Return on staked
-32.7%
Bets
2/4 won
Edge vs price
-22.0 pts ±21.9
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 11, 19:40 EDTOct 23, 05:04 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | 81¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | 57¢ | missed | 3d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs aimclub (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | 82¢ | called | 3d ago |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs JD Gaming (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs | 68¢ | called | 12d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.