Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$588
Return on staked
+16.3%
Bets
29/36 won
Edge vs price
+13.4 pts ±6.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +13.0 pts (16/18). Newer half: +13.8 pts (13/18).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jul 18, 18:45 EDTSep 15, 14:15 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 88¢ | called | 38d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 87¢ | called | 38d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 87¢ | called | 39d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 85¢ | called | 39d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 81¢ | called | 42d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 76¢ | called | 42d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 65¢ | called | 43d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 54¢ | called | 43d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 52¢ | called | 44d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 50¢ | called | 46d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 58¢ | called | 53d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 50¢ | called | 56d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 49¢ | missed | 123d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | 6¢ | missed | 143d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 83¢ | called | 152d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.