Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,072
Return on staked
+38.3%
Bets
20/28 won
Edge vs price
+21.0 pts ±9.4
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +13.8 pts (9/14). Newer half: +28.2 pts (11/14).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Sep 13, 06:40 EDTOct 23, 18:04 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Army vs. Tulsa | 50¢ | called | 9h ago |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | 51¢ | missed | 11h ago |
| Army vs. Tulsa | 49¢ | called | 11h ago |
| Spread: Hawks (-2.5) | 52¢ | called | 14h ago |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic | 50¢ | called | 14h ago |
| Spread: Liberty (-8.5) | 52¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Spread: 76ers (-2.5) | 52¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Hurricanes vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 | 53¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 50.5 | 49¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 6.5 | 49¢ | called | 1d ago |
| LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs | 44¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Spread: Lakers (-6.5) | 52¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Spread: Lakers (-6.5) | 51¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Panthers vs. Senators | 51¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Spread: New Mexico State (-2.5) | 53¢ | called | 2d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.