Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$801
Return on staked
+26.7%
Bets
27/30 won
Edge vs price
+19.3 pts ±8.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +12.3 pts (12/15). Newer half: +26.3 pts (15/15).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 20, 19:59 EDTOct 04, 11:20 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams vs. Eagles | 63¢ | called | 20d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 81¢ | called | 34d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | 83¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 81¢ | called | 40d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 78¢ | called | 41d ago |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13? | 84¢ | called | 41d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 79¢ | called | 43d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 63¢ | called | 44d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 53¢ | called | 45d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 44¢ | called | 56d ago |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? | 91¢ | called | 60d ago |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23? | 73¢ | called | 62d ago |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23? | 72¢ | called | 62d ago |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs | 77¢ | called | 63d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? | 83¢ | called | 64d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.