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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +12.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+12.3 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$84.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$32.4k
Last 30 days +$280 · $455.9k volume · 303 trades · since Jul 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$40.6k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$8,200
Closed-position win rate
80%
10 closed
Wallet age · markets
451d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | +12.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $29.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $21.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $33.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf83eb9…