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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -0.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-0.4 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$92.2k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$12k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? at 39¢) and the edge is -15.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 50% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 66% · n=2
80–100¢
0% vs 82% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$486.8k
Last 30 days −$36.4k · $8.37M volume · 14,697 trades · since Feb 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 475 closed
−$31.9k
Open P&L · 60 positions
−$395.2k
Closed-position win rate
53%
475 closed
Wallet age · markets
258d
583 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs | LOW BUY TEAM VISION @ 63¢ | $20.0k | called |
 LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 66¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
 France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY France @ 68¢ | $20.4k | missed |
 UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Gabriel Bonfim @ 50¢ | $10.0k | called |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $15.0k | called |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 82¢ | $13.0k | missed |
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