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+$260Yes · avg 90.9¢ → 91.5¢ · $40.3k−$34No · avg 94.8¢ → 94.5¢ · $10.1k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$286No · avg 93.7¢ → 90.5¢ · $8,190−$37No · avg 86¢ → 86¢ · $4,702+$20No · avg 93¢ → 93.5¢ · $4,060+$60No · avg 90¢ → 91.5¢ · $3,660+$49No · avg 89¢ → 90.5¢ · $3,568+$54Yes · avg 84¢ → 85¢ · $3,221
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -2.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-2.8 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$158.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$23.3k
Last 30 days +$536 · $2.17M volume · 2,991 trades · since Dec 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$24.0k
Open P&L · 9 positions
+$3
Closed-position win rate
81%
78 closed
Wallet age · markets
304d
86 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -2.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 89¢ | $32.5k 2.0× usual |
called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.5¢ | $16.1k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $20.5k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
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