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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +3.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$35.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$94.6k
Last 30 days −$4,135 · $10.99M volume · 38,722 trades · since Sep 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$955.2k
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$245.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
413d
4661 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +3.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 95¢ | $10.2k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
 Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $14.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf14201…