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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +11.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+11.7 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$27.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1,812
Last 30 days +$0 · $157.9k volume · 110 trades · since Oct 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4,197
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$2,385
Closed-position win rate
100%
6 closed
Wallet age · markets
373d
7 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +11.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ | $27.8k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xecf9e8…