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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -16.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-16.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$81.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$23.0k
Last 30 days +$21.5k · $937.7k volume · 185 trades · since Feb 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$14.7k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
33%
97 closed
Wallet age · markets
261d
136 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -16.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | LOW SELL Yes @ 94.6¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Spain @ 99.8¢ | $41.9k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 40¢ | $17.0k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢ | $11.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xeb8be5…