← Wallets
−$7,611Yes · avg 23¢ → 15¢ · $15.4k−$770Yes · avg 18¢ → 16¢ · $11.2k+$2,942Yes · avg 14¢ → 20¢ · $10,000−$1,731Yes · avg 13¢ → 11¢ · $8,321+$1,731Yes · avg 30¢ → 38¢ · $7,700+$2,108Yes · avg 2.2¢ → 3.3¢ · $6,630−$20.7kYes · avg 27¢ → 6.5¢ · $6,500+$1,650No · avg 47¢ → 64¢ · $6,350
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -5.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-5.5 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$137.7k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$33k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? at 47¢) and the edge is -20.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=2
20–40¢
0% vs 27% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 47% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$108.0k
Last 30 days −$11.3k · $28.61M volume · 49,336 trades · since Jun 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$924.1k
Open P&L · 135 positions
−$83.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
495d
2321 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | -22.6 pts |
| Other | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | +5.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 80¢ | $12.0k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ | $13.3k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $13.9k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 75¢ | $11.2k | missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 50¢ | $18.9k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ | $10.4k | missed |
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