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+$12Yes · avg 87¢ → 97.5¢ · $112+$16Yes · avg 50¢ → 66¢ · $66 · 2 proven with, 0 against+$9Yes · avg 57¢ → 74¢ · $39−$83Yes · avg 65¢ → 20¢ · $37 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.4 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$151.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$27.7k
Last 30 days −$13 · $654.0k volume · 483 trades · since Oct 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$13.2k
Open P&L · 27 positions
−$36.8k
Closed-position win rate
76%
131 closed
Wallet age · markets
376d
135 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4 | 4 | 3.7 | +6.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $68.9k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.9¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.3¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.4¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 94.9¢ | $27.4k | called |
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