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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -85.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-85.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$170.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$51.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $8.28M volume · 7,479 trades · since Dec 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$655.3k
Open P&L · 20 positions
−$64.9k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
297d
804 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -85.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 88¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
 Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $18.3k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Knicks @ 92.8¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Lakers @ 97¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Magic vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Magic @ 85¢ | $16.8k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Pistons @ 99.9¢ | $18.6k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 93.4¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe4d384…