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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -46.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-46.4 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$143.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$273.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $12.08M volume · 8,797 trades · since Nov 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.20M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
703d
1051 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -39.1 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -53.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 46¢ | $10.7k | missed |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $52.4k | excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.5¢ | $70.0k 2.2× usual |
called |
 Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $10.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe4053a…