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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +3.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$2.01M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.18M
Last 30 days +$0 · $12.43M volume · 4,202 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.30M
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$2.46M
Closed-position win rate
71%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
134d
13 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +3.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | HIGH BUY No @ 47¢ | $740.0k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $830.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $244.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $94.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe22ad3…