← Wallets
+$9,346Yes · avg 6¢ → 13¢ · $17.9k+$5,569Yes · avg 3.3¢ → 5.5¢ · $14.4k+$602Yes · avg 15¢ → 16¢ · $10.1k−$883Yes · avg 11¢ → 9.6¢ · $8,008−$7Yes · avg 69¢ → 69¢ · $7,383+$588Yes · avg 18¢ → 20¢ · $6,802−$789Yes · avg 7.3¢ → 6.5¢ · $6,213+$287Yes · avg 15¢ → 16¢ · $3,036
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -34.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-34.6 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$179.4k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$72k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spurs vs. Knicks at 54¢) and the edge is -54.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 21% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 57% · n=3
80–100¢
0% vs 82% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$192.8k
Last 30 days −$8,378 · $9.36M volume · 14,694 trades · since Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$360.7k
Open P&L · 77 positions
−$203.9k
Closed-position win rate
40%
131 closed
Wallet age · markets
573d
186 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 1 | 2.7 | -34.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $15.8k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 17¢ | $35.0k 3.0× usual |
called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 32¢ | $11.2k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢ | $24.3k 2.1× usual |
called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $10.6k | missed |
 Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $11.6k | called |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED SELL Yes @ 79¢ | $50.6k 4.4× usual |
missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 58¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 58¢ | $10.4k | missed |
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