0xda68…6b7b

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +21.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?+$171No · avg 81¢ → 83¢ · $7,884 Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?+$81No · avg 95.3¢ → 97.4¢ · $3,707 Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?+$5No · avg 91¢ → 91.5¢ · $884 Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?−$822Yes · avg 45¢ → 12¢ · $318 Over $2.5B crypto hack value in 2026?+$55Yes · avg 79¢ → 97.9¢ · $288 USD1 depeg by December 31?−$2No · avg 95¢ → 94¢ · $179 Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026?+$50Yes · avg 29¢ → 59¢ · $97

Price-adjusted edge

+21.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$141.3k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$29.4k

Last 30 days +$1,015 · $2.62M volume · 2,283 trades · since Aug 11, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$20.9k

Open P&L · 12 positions

−$5,068

Closed-position win rate

68%

363 closed

Wallet age · markets

74d

347 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	1	0.8	+21.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$50.0k	100%	37d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$49.6k	99%	39d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$29.7k	99%	42d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$12.0k	79%	42d ago	called

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$50.0k

LOW 0xda68…6b7b · 37d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.2¢$49.6k

LOW 0xda68…6b7b · 39d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99¢$29.7k

LOW 0xda68…6b7b · 42d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 79¢$12.0k

LOW 0xda68…6b7b · 42d ago

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