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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +33.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+33.9 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$123.3k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$33.5k
Last 30 days −$63 · $2.84M volume · 1,604 trades · since Apr 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$40.6k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$6,748
Closed-position win rate
50%
140 closed
Wallet age · markets
550d
145 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 3 | 1.6 | +33.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $10.6k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $22.1k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 74¢ | $22.2k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $12.9k | called |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $40.4k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd902d8…