← Wallets
−$102No · avg 85¢ → 83¢ · $4,223−$62No · avg 86¢ → 84¢ · $4,114−$19No · avg 86¢ → 86¢ · $2,227−$279Yes · avg 30¢ → 26¢ · $1,579+$46No · avg 69¢ → 72¢ · $1,421−$18No · avg 37¢ → 36¢ · $1,346+$11No · avg 78¢ → 82¢ · $261−$6Yes · avg 17¢ → 16¢ · $140
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -95.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-95.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$216.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$69.6k
Last 30 days −$2,577 · $1.01M volume · 6,726 trades · since Mar 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$26.2k
Open P&L · 66 positions
−$92.6k
Closed-position win rate
53%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
233d
711 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.9 | -95.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.1¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $62.6k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $58.1k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢ | $11.8k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $35.3k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $33.8k | excluded |
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