Saltyballs

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +19.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?−$62Yes · avg 91.1¢ → 90.5¢ · $9,768 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?−$80Yes · avg 85¢ → 84¢ · $6,979 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?−$13No · avg 37¢ → 36¢ · $1,246 Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?+$228Yes · avg 9.2¢ → 15¢ · $594 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House−$90No · avg 39¢ → 34¢ · $570 · 0 proven with, 2 against Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$14Yes · avg 36¢ → 37¢ · $529 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House−$89Yes · avg 8.9¢ → 7.5¢ · $478 Iran full airspace closure by December 31?+$127Yes · avg 27¢ → 38¢ · $477

Price-adjusted edge

+19.2 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

0.6

Flagged volume

$41.6k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$178.9k

Last 30 days +$718 · $9.97M volume · 10,250 trades · since Jul 31, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$466.9k

Open P&L · 50 positions

−$2,219

Closed-position win rate

89%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

815d

845 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	1	0.6	+19.2 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 94¢	$14.9k	6%	13d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 44¢	$16.5k	56%	169d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$10.2k	1%	242d ago	excluded

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?missed

SELL No @ 94¢$14.9k

LOW Saltyballs · 13d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?called

SELL Yes @ 44¢$16.5k

LOW Saltyballs · 169d ago

US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 98.5¢$10.2k

LOW Saltyballs · 242d ago

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