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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -54.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-54.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$978.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$47.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $10.60M volume · 2,539 trades · since Jul 01, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$640.6k
Open P&L · 86 positions
−$617.2k
Closed-position win rate
87%
53 closed
Wallet age · markets
114d
150 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -54.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $44.2k | excluded |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Spain @ 99.8¢ | $126.8k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 71¢ | $90.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | LOW SELL Yes @ 25¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| France vs. England: O/U 6.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $74.9k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $60.9k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 55¢ | $39.7k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW SELL England @ 99.8¢ | $148.5k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 68¢ | $87.7k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 90¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED SELL Yes @ 84¢ | $53.4k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $39.1k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $33.5k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 45¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED SELL England @ 69¢ | $40.2k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $29.7k | called |
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