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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -81.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-81.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$37.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±38.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$7,208
Last 30 days +$0 · $279.0k volume · 129 trades · since Nov 15, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$8,315
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$15.5k
Closed-position win rate
86%
21 closed
Wallet age · markets
708d
22 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -81.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $15.5k | missed |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 88¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 76¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd33023…