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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -49.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-49.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$45.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$104.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.53M volume · 1,803 trades · since Jan 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$101.5k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$203.7k
Closed-position win rate
53%
73 closed
Wallet age · markets
288d
87 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | -49.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Iowa Hawkeyes @ 47¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | LOW BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 47¢ | $14.9k | missed |
| Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) | LOW BUY Duke Blue Devils @ 52¢ | $16.5k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xcf4049…