← Wallets
−$125.8kYes · avg 13¢ → 2.2¢ · $27.5k−$10.4kYes · avg 15¢ → 9.5¢ · $18.8k−$691Yes · avg 12¢ → 6.5¢ · $779+$2No · avg 92.8¢ → 97.5¢ · $36+$2No · avg 49¢ → 58¢ · $12+$2Yes · avg 39¢ → 51¢ · $10
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -11.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-11.5 pts
Called / graded
2/6
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$315.5k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$7k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will France win on 2026-07-14? at 60¢) and the edge is -21.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 6% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 33% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 57% · n=3
60–80¢
100% vs 60% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$4.13M
Last 30 days −$38.9k · $164.24M volume · 141,912 trades · since Sep 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$13.70M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$11.91M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
767d
5712 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 2 | 2.7 | -11.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. England: O/U 6.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 61¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $59.8k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 68¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 57¢ | $28.4k | excluded |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 93.9¢ | $14.1k | missed |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $44.5k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
 Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $19.4k | excluded |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 67¢ | $23.5k | missed |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $20.8k | missed |
 Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $11.5k | missed |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $34.6k | called |
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