MrDouche

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +64.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$778No · avg 52¢ → 87¢ · $1,937 Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?−$577No · avg 56¢ → 29¢ · $645

Price-adjusted edge

+64.5 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$102.9k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$344.6k

Last 30 days +$11.7k · $74.91M volume · 189,876 trades · since Jul 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$1.75M

Open P&L · 180 positions

−$838.9k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

466d

2826 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.6	+41.0 pts
Other	1	1	0.1	+88.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	LOW SELL No @ 35¢	$16.9k	65%	6d ago	excluded
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$14.8k	59%	57d ago	called
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?	LOW SELL No @ 92¢	$18.1k	8%	98d ago	excluded
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?	LOW SELL No @ 88¢	$14.8k	12%	114d ago	called
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	LOW SELL No @ 16¢	$38.4k 2.3× usual	84%	123d ago	excluded

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?excluded

SELL No @ 35¢$16.9k

LOW MrDouche · 6d ago

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28?called

BUY Yes @ 59¢$14.8k

LOW MrDouche · 57d ago

Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?excluded

SELL No @ 92¢$18.1k

LOW MrDouche · 98d ago

Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia?called

SELL No @ 88¢$14.8k

LOW MrDouche · 114d ago

Will England win on 2026-06-23?excluded

SELL No @ 16¢$38.4k

LOW MrDouche · 123d ago

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