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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -4.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.0 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$41.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$77.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $17.08M volume · 16,073 trades · since Oct 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.08M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
61%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
383d
494 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 3 | 1 | 1.1 | -4.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $12.1k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 91.7¢ | $11.6k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 91.2¢ | $18.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc2a37f…