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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +32.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +28.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+32.6 pts
Called / graded
6/7
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$598.5k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$413k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 at 44¢) and the edge is +28.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
80% vs 49% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 64% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.49M
Last 30 days +$0 · $7.80M volume · 5,670 trades · since Jun 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.63M
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$1.13M
Closed-position win rate
90%
20 closed
Wallet age · markets
126d
41 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 6 | 3.7 | +32.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 44¢ | $26.0k | called |
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | LOW BUY Argentina @ 45¢ | $20.3k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $58.0k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 49¢ | $50.8k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $48.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | LOW BUY Tunisia @ 52¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY No @ 48¢ | $186.7k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $99.0k | called |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $84.5k | called |
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