thanksmom

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?−$82No · avg 95.8¢ → 95.2¢ · $14.4k Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?+$322No · avg 91¢ → 97.1¢ · $5,122 Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?+$102No · avg 95¢ → 97¢ · $4,852 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?+$141Yes · avg 92.6¢ → 96¢ · $3,960 Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?+$99No · avg 93¢ → 96.4¢ · $2,850 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?−$59No · avg 86¢ → 80¢ · $867 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?+$20No · avg 93¢ → 96.5¢ · $536 Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?+$9No · avg 95.2¢ → 97.2¢ · $406

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$192.3k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$6,863

Last 30 days +$2,437 · $1.10M volume · 914 trades · since May 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$6,150

Open P&L · 15 positions

+$577

Closed-position win rate

82%

119 closed

Wallet age · markets

175d

117 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$30.7k	100%	1d ago	pending
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$51.3k	99%	65d ago	excluded
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$11.1k	100%	86d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$25.8k	100%	86d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$30.0k	100%	88d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$23.5k	100%	128d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	100%	142d ago	excluded

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?pending

BUY No @ 99.9¢$30.7k

LOW thanksmom · 1d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.7¢$51.3k

LOW thanksmom · 65d ago

Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$11.1k

LOW thanksmom · 86d ago

Trump out as President by July 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$25.8k

LOW thanksmom · 86d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$30.0k

LOW thanksmom · 88d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$23.5k

LOW thanksmom · 128d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$20.0k

LOW thanksmom · 142d ago

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