← Wallets
+$8,320Yes · avg 70¢ → 94.5¢ · $31.8k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$459No · avg 90.8¢ → 95.3¢ · $9,608−$289No · avg 95.6¢ → 92.7¢ · $9,323+$256No · avg 88¢ → 92.7¢ · $5,652−$175No · avg 95¢ → 91.5¢ · $4,575+$421No · avg 65¢ → 72¢ · $4,164 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$667No · avg 40¢ → 52¢ · $2,920+$223Yes · avg 68¢ → 75¢ · $2,309
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did +29.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+29.7 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$107.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$63.9k
Last 30 days +$21.3k · $2.77M volume · 3,346 trades · since Oct 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$69.8k
Open P&L · 48 positions
−$479
Closed-position win rate
76%
313 closed
Wallet age · markets
375d
346 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | +29.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $10.5k | missed |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $10.3k | called |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $25.8k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $13.6k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 96.4¢ | $13.6k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $11.5k | called |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $10.3k | called |
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