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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +0.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -6.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+0.0 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$144.2k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$58k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes at 73¢) and the edge is -6.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 4% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 23% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 74% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$69.8k
Last 30 days −$0 · $3.53M volume · 2,195 trades · since Nov 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$68.9k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$40
Closed-position win rate
37%
138 closed
Wallet age · markets
710d
113 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | -17.0 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | +25.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines | LOW SELL Tennessee Volunteers @ 24¢ | $32.1k | called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW SELL Iowa Hawkeyes @ 27¢ | $31.9k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 96¢ | $16.5k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 76¢ | $30.4k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 77¢ | $33.3k | missed |
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