← Wallets
−$26No · avg 87¢ → 86¢ · $11.0k−$105No · avg 85¢ → 82¢ · $2,445+$220No · avg 88¢ → 97.4¢ · $2,275+$171No · avg 81¢ → 88¢ · $1,939+$151No · avg 85¢ → 95.3¢ · $1,433+$224No · avg 82¢ → 98.7¢ · $1,312+$14No · avg 95.4¢ → 96.5¢ · $1,254−$10No · avg 90¢ → 89¢ · $890
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -3.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-3.2 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$150.8k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$106k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 me at 96¢) and the edge is -4.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 5% · n=5
80–100¢
100% vs 96% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$7,431
Last 30 days −$36 · $10.81M volume · 8,925 trades · since Jun 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$906.9k
Open P&L · 70 positions
−$1,360
Closed-position win rate
87%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
488d
603 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 6 | 1 | 1.2 | -3.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 95.5¢ | $14.3k | missed |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $10.0k | called |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 95.5¢ | $24.4k | missed |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 94.8¢ | $10.6k | missed |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | MED SELL Yes @ 95.3¢ | $32.7k | missed |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 95.9¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
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