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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +8.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.4 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$137.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,268
Last 30 days −$4,041 · $577.2k volume · 20 trades · since May 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1,772
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$4,020
Closed-position win rate
82%
11 closed
Wallet age · markets
148d
13 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 4 | 3.7 | +8.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ | $20.0k | pending |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 92.6¢ | $20.0k | called |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90.7¢ | $13.4k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $44.2k 2.2× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $20.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xbc807f…