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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 6.3 wins, so it did +10.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +9.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+10.0 pts
Called / graded
7/7
Expected from price
6.3
Flagged volume
$198.9k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$23k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? at 87¢) and the edge is +9.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 90% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$151.9k
Last 30 days +$426 · $1.20M volume · 345 trades · since Nov 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$151.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
90%
10 closed
Wallet age · markets
721d
10 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 7 | 7 | 6.3 | +10.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.7¢ | $19.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.8¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.8¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ | $60.0k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ | $40.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $10.0k | called |
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