← Wallets
−$1,150Yes · avg 26¢ → 14¢ · $1,450+$425No · avg 46¢ → 99¢ · $792−$244Yes · avg 8¢ → 5¢ · $406
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.2 wins, so it did -8.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-8.3 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.2
Flagged volume
$131.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$145.1k
Last 30 days −$281 · $2.69M volume · 1,604 trades · since Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$40.0k
Open P&L · 18 positions
−$105.0k
Closed-position win rate
70%
43 closed
Wallet age · markets
828d
55 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | -8.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $33.4k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $10.1k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $19.8k | called |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ | $20.3k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $18.4k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $18.3k | missed |
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