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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did +13.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+13.7 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$133.5k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$823.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $25.87M volume · 181,193 trades · since Feb 12, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$3.98M
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$16
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
254d
3685 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 2.5 | +13.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Celtics vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 43¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | MED BUY Pistons @ 74¢ | $39.2k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Rockets vs. Magic | MED BUY Rockets @ 57¢ | $28.5k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Thunder @ 51¢ | $13.2k | called |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $14.7k | called |
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