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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did +47.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+47.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$895.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$43.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $12.69M volume · 4,135 trades · since Mar 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.43M
Open P&L · 176 positions
−$1.39M
Closed-position win rate
93%
216 closed
Wallet age · markets
223d
366 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | +47.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 62¢ | $61.5k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Iowa Hawkeyes @ 26¢ | $42.5k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $30.9k | called |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | MED BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 73¢ | $183.5k 2.9× usual |
called |
 Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies | MED BUY Connecticut Huskies @ 54¢ | $133.8k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 54¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers | MED BUY Purdue Boilermakers @ 78¢ | $193.8k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | LOW SELL Michigan State Spartans @ 99.9¢ | $99.5k | excluded |
| Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans | MED BUY Michigan State Spartans @ 65¢ | $64.5k | excluded |
| Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes | LOW BUY Missouri Tigers @ 46¢ | $45.6k | excluded |
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