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+$46Yes · avg 46¢ → 53¢ · $338
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did -26.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-26.7 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$409.9k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$159k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? at 48¢) and the edge is -42.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 36% · n=3
40–60¢
33% vs 50% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$402.1k
Last 30 days −$13.5k · $57.55M volume · 59,404 trades · since Nov 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$10.18M
Open P&L · 42 positions
−$319.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
699d
1394 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 1 | 2.6 | -26.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Red Wings vs. Canucks | LOW BUY Canucks @ 39¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Jets vs. Stars | LOW BUY Jets @ 36¢ | $20.9k | missed |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ | $19.4k | excluded |
 Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY No @ 48¢ | $12.0k | called |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 92.3¢ | $15.8k | missed |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY No @ 41¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.1¢ | $19.2k | called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 93.1¢ | $17.2k | called |
 Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | MED BUY Hurricanes @ 91.6¢ | $87.4k 5.1× usual |
excluded |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 47¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Oilers | LOW BUY Oilers @ 64¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
| Ducks vs. Sharks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 50¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Jets vs. Bruins | LOW BUY Jets @ 45¢ | $38.9k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Penguins vs. Utah | MED BUY Utah @ 58¢ | $72.7k 4.3× usual |
missed |
| Predators vs. Capitals | LOW BUY Predators @ 38¢ | $17.0k | missed |
| Sabres vs. Lightning | LOW BUY Sabres @ 35¢ | $22.6k | missed |
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