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+$998No · avg 93¢ → 95¢ · $45.9k+$1,270No · avg 88¢ → 96¢ · $16.2k+$109No · avg 93.3¢ → 95.5¢ · $4,577+$7Yes · avg 2.1¢ → 2.1¢ · $552−$904Yes · avg 60¢ → 13¢ · $249+$0No · avg 76¢ → 78¢ · $23
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -92.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-92.6 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$87.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$40.8k
Last 30 days −$1,083 · $988.4k volume · 724 trades · since Jul 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$9,343
Open P&L · 25 positions
−$49.9k
Closed-position win rate
58%
103 closed
Wallet age · markets
826d
120 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.9 | -92.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $13.0k | called |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $27.1k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.1¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 74¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $12.0k | called |
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