← Wallets
−$4Yes · avg 12¢ → 11¢ · $67
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did -35.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-35.7 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.8
Flagged volume
$508.3k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$49k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 83¢) and the edge is -49.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 32% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 55% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 83% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$824.6k
Last 30 days +$611 · $22.68M volume · 9,572 trades · since Jun 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.82M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$3.28M
Closed-position win rate
87%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
127d
959 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 1 | 2.8 | -35.7 pts |
History
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xa4fd70a8d79c3433ca2eb967ee605a356986748b"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xa4fd70a8d79c3433ca2eb967ee605a356986748b.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa4fd70…