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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -11.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-11.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$1.72M
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.19M
Last 30 days +$0 · $18.13M volume · 5,872 trades · since Jun 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4.76M
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$3.52M
Closed-position win rate
100%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
132d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | -11.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $16.8k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | HIGH BUY No @ 48¢ | $583.9k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $300.0k | called |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $700.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $108.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | LOW BUY Spain @ 55¢ | $15.4k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa4b1ea…